Predictions for 2030

This should be fun. Below is a collection of predictions I have about what the world will look like in 2030.

I believe each of these predictions has about a ~70% chance of occurring. None are intended to convey certainty.

This is the goldilocks zone for making interesting calls.

Any prediction with a 50% chance (or worse) of occurring is a coin flip and lacks the clarity needed to start placing meaningful investments of time, money, or space in your brain. 100% certainty bets are unlikely to meaningfully change your perspective, or, worse, suffer from overconfidence.

In between sits the most *potentially* impactful realm of prediction. Hopefully, these predictions will lead you to consider outcomes that you might not otherwise.

1. 5 of the 100 highest-paid celebrities in 2030 will be pseudonymous

Weirdly, I think this might be underestimating. For reference, only one was in 2020 (Marshmello) according to Forbes.

The fastest-growing YouTube channel of 2020 was a nameless, faceless creator that goes by Dream. YouTube audience is a relatively strong proxy for revenue capacity and he’s already 1/3rd of a way to Marshmello’s standing, via his Minecraft playing videos.

Why will this expand?

Fame, on a personal level, is overrated. Cancel culture can whip any group into a frenzy and completely dash the business prospects of any brand based on a single person. 

Individuals will use the wide array of creative tools to spin up pseudonymous identities that are responsible for earning a disparate collection of income streams. 

The antifragility of this model will slowly win over more and more admirers. 

2. Bitcoin’s Market Cap will surpass $10 trillion

This would make a single Bitcoin worth $500,000 or more.

What is the market for a digitally-native asset with a network of market participants as potentially large as every internet-connected person and institution? Pretty frickin’ big.

I wrote about Bitcoin’s potential in late 2020. It has doubled in value since then.

Nothing has changed my mind since writing about the largest cryptocurrency’s potential.

This is a pure asymmetric upside bet, similar to venture capital investing in a startup.

If it gets hacked or proves faulty, the worst an investor can do is lose their money. Should it reach its full potential, it could be 10x more valuable than it is today.

To reiterate, this is not a certain prediction and many would dispute this probability. It is also not investment advice. There is a non-zero chance that the asset crashes and anyone investing today would lose money.

3. Turkey will expand its territorial geographic footprint by 10% or more

Most Americans barely think about Turkey. It’s not European or China. Since it's literally on the other side of the planet, this isn’t particularly surprising.

However, Turkey has one of the largest standing armies in the world and a currency that is failing. Precisely the same setup Germany had in the late 1930s.

When your internal economy is in shambles, nation-states look to strongmen who will point the finger at enemies abroad.

They studied how the Americans, Russians, Europeans, and Chinese all stood on the sidelines during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 2020 and will expect the same in the future.

Turkey checks all the boxes of an entity that would start, and win, a regional conflict.

4. The Semiconductor industry will surpass 1% share of world GDP

Semiconductors are the silicon chips that thousands of products such as computers, smartphones, appliances, gaming hardware, and medical equipment rely on to function.

Currently, the semiconductor industry sits at about .6% of world GDP, a high tied only by the Dotcom boom and bust of 1999.

Unlike ‘99, today computers are pervasive in every facet of our lives. If software is eating the world, we’re past the appetizers and on to the entree.

However, linear growth will not necessarily put us at 1% of GDP by 2030. Instead, I reckon supply shortage and the arms race to follow will accelerate growth over the next decade.

Unfortunately, the US’ preeminent chip brand, Intel, has been financialized (read: gutted for profit at the expense of quality output) in a similar fashion to IBM, GE, and Boeing. They can no longer meet the quality or quantity needs of top computer manufacturers like Apple.

Do you know where the most important semiconductor company on the planet is located? Taiwan. Right off the coast of China.

Taiwan Semiconductor is the most valuable semiconductor company on the planet because of its unparalleled foundry. The foundry can create more high-quality silicon wafers than any other manufacturer on the planet by a considerable margin.

I cannot understate how essential these chips are to the devices that you use in your everyday life. 

Through the 1990s and 2000s, the United States went to war in the Middle East to protect its oil interests because it could not function without affordable petrol. It is now energy independent, hence the near-complete drawdown of forces from Afghanistan and Iraq.

The oil independence of the past is now chip independence. The world’s superpower cannot afford for Taiwan to fall into the hands of its geopolitical rival China.

In order to avoid conflict, the US government will have to invest tens (if not hundreds) of billions to bring domestic chip fabrication capabilities online.

With a net increase of supply worldwide, technologists will continue to find new, novel applications for silicon chips to animate, track, and digitize more and more of our lives.

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What’s something you predict will be true by 2030, that most people would disagree with? Let me know.